Betfair trading | Live stream with Peter Webb of Bet Angel


eating’s everybody I’ve sort of set this
up that I can look at questions that come over here and I can see there’s a
there’s a little bit of a light too coming in behind me but hopefully that
won’t be too much of a problem I can always dim the lights in a second and
I’m hoping that everything looks alright in terms of the picture
no on but if you want to ask some questions then you should fire away
because what I’m going to be doing is reading up some questions on here
whenever I’ve done these in the past the problem that I tend to get as I get too
many questions so we will attempt to answer as many questions as I can in the
next hour and if you want to ask a question just pop a question in the live
chat and I will give you an answer to the best of my knowledge if somebody
wants to comment on the picture and the audio I just want to make sure that you
can hear it because I can’t because it’s on a big screen just behind the camera
here so I can see it fine but I’m just assuming that you can see everything all
right okay we’ve got some of the first questions coming through good as long as
you don’t ask about the habitants day I’ll be fine the the first question from
odds champs is how do I stop going in play I’ve actually just written a blog
post on that which is going to go up I don’t know if I go up tonight or
tomorrow it depends which blog post I choose for tonight so it’ll probably go
up tomorrow but if you look at that blog post you will have an a very
authoritative answer on that and the consequences of why you shouldn’t go in
play but that will help you significantly I should think a fairly
standard questionnaire from Gareth how much do you make a day or a week trading
it’s very dependent upon the quality of what’s in front of me in the number of
opportunities I’ve had a good day today the feature race traded well today but
typically in the winter I will make significantly less than I do in the
summer simply because there
more opportunities so this is the quietest time this is why you tend to
see me doing live streams and stuff at this time of the year because the racing
and the football finishes at about the same time and then suddenly we’re into
the evening so that fits pretty well for me but it was quite easy to get a four
figure results today and that it was because the markets were reasonably
suitable and if you look at racing it rises and falls depending the quality
rises and falls over the course the year so really I’m waiting for chairman at
the moment there are some highlights on Saturdays but here asks me to do the
same that I’ve done today on Monday there’s absolutely no chance but I also
picked up a couple of decent football trades this afternoon so it was an above
average day today but in the summer you know all funning games basically in the
summer how did you find today’s English Premier League matches I liked days when
unexpected things happen most of my positions are geared up to unexpected
things and when you look at unexpected events most people that’s where you tend
to find Valley it’s hard to bet or trade on those things because you will lose
from me but days like today when there were very few results that went the
right way in terms of what the odds were saying I liked those days so I’d say it
was a non-representative above-average day today let’s scroll back up here
because suddenly the questions coming in and they’re going off the top of the
screen here Liam says can our lang favorites and
greyhound races be a profitable strategy the thing to remember about value
whether it’s to do with football racing tennis or any sport whatsoever is you’re
generally the market in aggregate is pretty efficient so you’re looking for
situations where the favorite is available at a good price in terms of
being too short where it’s no longer represents value so typically there be a
situation where there’s a series of events that cause the people to shorten
the price of the favorite where it pushes into value territory but if the
market for the market to be efficient it generally is otherwise obviously people
would be losing enormous amounts of money you need to look for exceptional
situations so I do a value betting and and stuff but it tends to be picking off
opportunities as they occur it doesn’t tend to be a generic progressive thing
so anything you do generically will produce generic results so yell look for
opportunities and that are considered exceptional or unusual which is where
you tend to find value what is your opinion about life football trading
compared to other sports football is incredibly variable so as you would have
heard me just mention I tend to look for unusual situations because they occur
much more frequent one of the jokes that I have regularly is that Outsiders score
more frequent anything you would expect but it’s just the nods to that basically
that that’s the sort of stuff that I’m looking for unusual events the trouble
is when you do something with an unusual event you end up in this situation where
you’re going to look a fool all of the time and people will review all of the
time as well so when you say something like oh I think this is value or this is
the situation people will ruthlessly review when you
get it wrong which will be very often but when people do that it gives me a
confidence that I’m doing the right thing if everybody agrees with you then
you’re probably doing the wrong thing so the problem with football is is very
variable and unusual things happen and you can frequently get things right but
yeah think just goes me in the match but if
he takes a Hampton for example today if you looked at the stats at halftime the
two nil lead flatted them so it made sense to oppose them today but of course
you would have opposed the team that was 10 L up at halftime that should have
typically gone on to win or at least not lose but so the Hampton came up trumps
today from a training perspective but not from her from a fan’s perspective so
yeah it’s it’s pretty annoying but such as life there was a little question that
I skipped there let’s have a look as somebody’s asked a question here about withdrawals and stuff probably better to
ask that to support rather than talk about it publicly Plaza player says that
he gave up trading a few years ago because thought too many people had
jumped on the bandwagon and has it changed in the last two years I think
you’ll always get the bandwagon effect we notice through queries that we get in
support that certain things become favorable over short periods of time and
I think markets inevitably get more competitive as they develop but for
example there was no way I could do any value based strategies sort of 15 years
ago or even 10 years ago probably but the markets have changed in terms of how
they’re more volatile that the volatility creates a problem in one area
but presents an opportunity in the other especially when you’re looking to pick
off value prices so I think what tends to change over time is the opportunity
but I think you’d always get people trying to jump on the bandwagon and what
we tend to find is that things become popular and people jump on those
specific bandwagons rather than the trading as a as a concept I think that
probably what we’ve seen in more recent years is that in fact trading is
a concept has been dumbed down a bit trading has always been difficult and
counterintuitive so I’m sort of saying difficult I mean it’s not a natural
thing to do it’s something that people sort of find unusual I’m just gonna move
this forward a bit see if I can get rid of this light blur here so making a
difference I don’t think it is that was a fail I think I’ll just move over
slightly so yeah trading has always been sort of slightly counterintuitive and
from that perspective it’s difficult but not impossible but you get a very large
churn of people coming through typically from a gambling background who think the
trading is just a question of setting up with a strategy and executing it and
that’s it and really learning how to trade and finding a trading strategy is
the start of a journey not the end there’s a lot to learn once you get
comfortable with trading in and out of a market and deploying a certain type of
strategy and your role as a trader really is to look at a market decide
what you think it’s going to do and then fit as strategy to it so you’ve got the
strategy element of it the risk management in terms of your money the
execution which is you using the software and deploying the strategy to
the best of your ability and there’s a bit of psychology thrown in there as
well so a lot of people never get to that stage so I think you’ll always get
a regular large number of people coming on but dropping off the system because
they sort of think well this is a bit harder than I imagined and and that’s
fairly typical I’d say for any trading market a few people have asked questions about
training we are gonna do I mean I’m sat in the sort of boardroom stroke training
room here or part of it they what you see when I do the videos typically is
you see me sat or stood stood in front of my desk but in fact we have a
complete office here so we have intended to do more training
courses and we know that there is demand for them but there are sort of competing
priorities that I have that have just stopped me from doing that but we do
intend to doing those again simply because people want us to but we have
been in improving the online content as well because one of the things I’m
conscious about when we’re doing courses is that there’s only a certain amount I
can tell you within a day gives you the chance to talk to me and for me to tell
you stuff and get it within key context of certain markets but I’ve always been
conscious as well that that’s just one part of a bigger journey so we have been
working hard on producing more online content so you see more of that
appearing in q1 simply because I feel that you need all of those little things
in place to be able to really get value from the course and I’ve been a bit of
slow juicing that if I’m completely honest so we wanted to make sure we got
that in place before we restart the courses so it will we’ll be starting up
again and when the racing begins to start a little bit later in the day is
when I prefer to do those because it means I can spend the whole afternoon
talking about the markets and the morning talking about the theory so
that’s sort of you know it allows me to demonstrate to stuff that we’ve talked
about so I’d prefer that when this when it starts to early in the day it’s too
much of a rush to be able to squeeze everything in Robert Bailey says is
there a video of how use the advance shot there is an advanced sharp mega
video or HRT mega video that I produced that talks about trading from front to
back I think it may be worth me producing a few videos on charting
because there’s several things that I do and don’t do on there there is stuff I
talked about during the call but that’s typically for digestion
during the courses rather than for free on YouTube but it may be worth me
looking at some of the charting aspects from her from a deeper perspective part
of what’s happened over the years is I’ve evolved quite a bit so when I used
to first trade you could just give me a ladder and I could just look at
everything that was happening on there and would actively trade it from there
but typically I do use charts a lots the problem that I have is that when you are
looking at information within the market it’s sometimes sort of pays to have a
broader mixture of it so you often have a separate screen which contains
chatting which you can’t see it’s too difficult to squeeze it all into one
video so what’s happened over the years is I basically bolted on more and more
of those things so Betty angel sends me alerts it plays
a little bit sound to me the charts have more developed than I used to use but
one of the problems I always have is trying to get that into a video that
doesn’t take half a day so I tend to stick with a default layout and explain
stuff that’s going on within that default layout because that just seems
easier to get across than some of the more complex stuff but I can have a look
and see what I can do in terms of developing some of that content but it
has to be quite nation specific which goes over the head of people who haven’t
got to that stage but that’s certainly something I can have a look at a good
question here about the Aussie Open tennis there are going to be it’s
basically saying let’s have a look some reason it jumped forward there I’m just
gonna scroll back there it is yeah the conditions at the autopen are going to
be pretty tough I’ve been watching some of the qualifier tournaments this is the
Australian Open tennis the first Grand Slam in season it’s going to take place
next week to try and work out what impact it’s going to have and how it’s
going to affect the players but I must admit I’m completely confused because
some players are complaining consistent matter and other
so I think it’s difficult to assess immediately how it’s going to affect it
directly but my advice to you is look at the weather because current rain winds
and other conditions indicate a changing pattern so that will probably change
some of the impacts that the event will have so the weather we’ll have so that’s
the thing that I’m looking at the moment is trying to understand you would sort
of think that perhaps there could be a couple of upsets or players that are
going to struggle more than others you know and some of them have been out
there for a little while so probably adapted to the conditions but I think
that keep an eye on the weather is my advice to you for that first week of the
Australian Open what sources you use for analysis of football matches
I’d actually do a lot of my own work I originally started analyzing football
matches in the mid 80s believe it or not so downstairs I have the Rothman’s
annual yearbook that I used to use it’s falling apart now I would share somebody
the other day and it sort of crumbled in my hands so I think I may have to wrap
it up in a cloth or something to keep it going for a few more years but that’s
always a reminder of where I started and but I do a lot of the analysis myself
but the thing that I would say is that a lot of the stat sites that are available
now are absolutely epic and way beyond my ability to capture the same
information and I think probably what I should do is a video talking you through
some of the stuff that I’m looking at so I think that’s probably the best way to
answer that question is to do a video on it I have intended doing one but yeah
there are a lot of really good quality data some of some of the stuff I look at
has a bit vague and like very niche so not convinced that that would be a value
but I think some of the broader stuff is quite useful yeah somebody’s asking here
do you think there will be any changes to the premium charge I lobby for them
all the time there’s no sign that anything is going to change around that
at this moment in time but I think that a lot of people have started to
mitigate the impact of that and I think the core mixture of that is changing
about there and we did see better fair move to a two percent commission model
effectively when they launched better rewards so I think that things are
changing a bit but because they’re a public company and because they’re
worried about their P&L I would be surprised if there’s any immediate
changed to that simply because it targets a very narrow number of people
and that mix isn’t really changing so I’d be surprised if they do change it
obviously I would love them to do that but you know there we go
klaudia says how often do you trade tennis one of the problems that I have
is I’m a compulsive fiddler I love messing around with everything basically
there’s nothing that I won’t have a play with so I’ll trade anything as long as
there’s liquidity in it so most of what I do is dictated by the time of the year
so I will be doing some of the early morning or late night Australian Open
stuff but I tend to dip in and out of it so it’s like I’m not a devout all-out
tennis trader but I’ve spent a long time modeling it and so I feel compelled to
put that to use and I’m a constant fiddler so I don’t trade it every day my
main market as you probably know already is racing but that’s just simply because
there’s so much of it and also I love that it’s in little chunks so if I
decide to duck out of it it’s very easy to duck out of it and return to Edmund I
can just switch on and off fairly frequently but with other sports it’s a
little bit more considered there has to be a gap in the schedule for me to be
able to actively trade it and that’s the same throughout the year really so I dip
in our sports depending upon liquidity but as I’ve got longer on in my career I
tend to focus on events that have the higher liquidity and ignore some of the
smaller stuff so that’s just a consequence of size really liam says our horse-racing markets more
volatile they have been getting more volatile over time so if you wind back
to when I first started so they were sort of solid as a rock but over time
especially the lower quality stuff they’ve generally got more volatile and
now that pushes out a lot of people who use quite basic strategies or aren’t
able to adapt but for every problem there’s an opportunity so every change
that occurs if you’re wise to that change there’s always a way to exploit
it so that would always be my advice to you is keep reinventing yourself but
also keep good data so you can see what’s changing because if you can
identify what’s changing within a market you can just say one step ahead of it so
yeah that’s always worth doing as a good question here from CA saying a lot of my
friends just can’t get their heads around trading can you do a is there a
way of dumbing it down so I think we are going to make some efforts to to try and
get it to that level I think dumbing down is the wrong word carefully
explaining I don’t know but some I think it is difficult to understand and when I
bring people in here it becomes a bit more realistic because they can see that
there is some substance behind it but it still makes it a little bit difficult to
explain and I think there is a subset of the population that will never get that
so even after 20 years of of being in the markets and doing stuff I still get
people who are desperate to prove that it never happened or that I’m not doing
it so I think you’re always going to have that and there is a prejudice
against people trading but also specifically gambling or trading in
gambling markets is like a double or triple negative so I think it is harder
to get that message across to people but also I’ve always I’ve often found this
with the press very hard to get the message across to the press I’ve wasted
a lot of time trying to convince them or encourage them to understand what’s
going on but there’s a general sense of apathy or lack of understanding and
they’re also not keen to write positive stories on gambling markets so I
think that particularly helps and I don’t think it will change dramatically
to be honest now Barry says do you pick certain football matches or situations a
bit of both really I do profile every match but before the match has start so
for example I was looking the Premier League matches early this morning and
profiling what I thought they should be but as soon as the match is underway
then I’ll start looking at the stats to generate the situations so you know if I
see a wide divergence from what I expected that’s and usually an
opportunity to get involved somebody saying will it be available to watch
afterwards yes it will do YouTube go off and render the video and then they send
me an email later and I’ll just type a title to it and publish it so it will be
available to view later what do you think is the best for a trader to make
money the least efficient I actually think the sports that hardest to model
and rationalize are they’re probably the best ones to do things that are
difficult to understand on some videos there are lots of people verbs just sort
of say oh this is a load of rubbish and you can’t predict things well the fact
is you can predict things you can even predict roughly where a price is going
to go but what you’re more worried about is the range of estimates the American
trading is all about sitting at those sort of extremities really and and
waiting for the market to correct itself or regress to me so you know I’ve always
liked horse-racing although it is quite a competitive market there simply
because of the frequency of occurrence if I do a thousand races a week it’s
almost certain that I’m going to end up positive over the course of the week
because all my little errors get sort of overwritten by all of the positives so I
think you know if you go into a sport if you have some knowledge so for example
if you know something about golf you’ll probably be a bit better at
understanding the opportunities within golf but you really need to get the
trading bit right so I think you should trade quite a few different sports to
understand the concept and all of the ambiguities about trading and then pick
on a sport you think that you’ve got some knowledge
that other people don’t particularly have although that said you know on
racing I’m nowhere near as good as other people in describing the form of
racehorses or how they’re gonna run and stuff like that but I know an
information to convert it into a useful trading strategy so it’s the trading
there that is dominant for me rather than the knowledge of the sport but for
example in football there are loads of things that I know about the way that
footballs played and how things transpire in there but you sort of see
that within bet angel because when we created soccer mystic tennis trader
these were all ways that I was looking at the market to try and understand the
market better and frame the trading opportunity so I think that if you focus
on the trading opportunity and limiting your ability to lose money then
profitable opportunities do occur and your role as a traders to go out and
find them and put yourself in situations where that’s likely to occur so yeah I
think that there is no one particular sport but I think sometimes having
knowledge can help you the only thing I would say is that you don’t want that to
prejudice the trading opportunity so learn to trade first and then and then
pick a decent spot somebody talking about the in play I did say I was going
to do some in play stuff and we are doing them we’re just a little bit
behind schedule in terms of new videos for a number of reasons but we’ve
generally been a little bit light on staff so I’ve had to fill in a few gaps
there and we haven’t been able to get the videos out as quickly as possible as
we would have done this year so those will be coming around Liam says do idea
positions when your trade starts so you could go in your favor would you
recommend you add to your position win it so so typically what I tend to do is
I’m tending to get into the market at a time
it depends what sort of trade you’re doing really so generally speaking I
don’t tend to add to a position and it tends to be the other way around I tend
to focus on trying to get the rough position right and then managing my risk
from there there are times when it’s obvious that it’s going
absolutely in the right direction so if you get something that’s being heavily
backed in using up this is being heavily backed and it starts to move into profit
then you sort of think well okay you know I will add to that position but you
must remember that most sports are time limited so your biggest opportunity is
further out and your smallest opportunity is right at you know as the
event is about to happen or do whatever you’re actively trading so for example
in horse-racing can be ten minutes out if the opportunity is quite good five
minutes out the opportunity is good if you’re going for a long trade but if
you’re a minute out it’s not going to be the same opportunities as five minutes
out so you wouldn’t use the same level of stakes so if you did add to your
position you would reduce your snake and in fact typically I tend to be pushing
positions back into the market around that point so sort of yes and no if
you’re in a strongly trending market probably but even then I’m still not
going to add significantly to it as we get towards like the maturity of the
position the object champ says by the time I’ve identified a drift or stream
it seems too late to capitalize so what you’re doing is you’re following the
market and you need to anticipate the market most trading the most effective
trading is about being just a little bit ahead of where the market is rather than
following the activity within the market so you should never be in the position
where you’re jumping on something because it’s happened you’re looking to
anticipate price activity in the market so I would advise that you’re better off
doing that if I see something that’s moved significantly then I’m sort of
erring on the side of going against that that move because if you think about it
if somebody’s back to ten grand five minutes ago they’re going to have to get
that position out as we head towards post time
so necessarily that would put pressure in the other direction so yeah my advice
to you is to almost do the opposite of that rather than waiting for something
to develop and then trying to capitalize them how do you the data every means
possible so bet Andrew gathers data for me gather data in spreadsheets and we
did have a data gathering tool we published it was called odds
extractor and the idea was that you could just download data from all of the
individual markets and I didn’t realize when we registered that a main odds
extractor that actually it says odd sex tract and lots of people took the mickey
out of us for that but Betfair asked us to remove it they didn’t want us to
produce a data gathering tool so I think it’s really disappointing that you can’t
do that and they prefer you to license their historical data whereas there are
tools available on the Bettinger forum if you go into the Beckford data section
where you can gather data so I recommend you go there and download and use some
of those tools olympos had to avoid paying premium premium charge or premium
tax premier text premium yeah he’s put pretty his corrected it I don’t I have
to pay it so last week I paid premium high rate premium charge I should point
out on all 52 weeks so you can’t avoid it if you’re if you’re a bigger player
if you’re a smaller player you may be able to find a way of masking your
activity but if you’re a bigger player I famously got my accounts suspended
because I’ve tried to avoid it by shifting activity to another account but
of course they’re fair can spot that you know if you’re a big player you know you
stick out like a sore thumb so you can’t avoid it basically Wladimir saying do you think he Rugby
League will increase inequities and present a lot more opportunity to the
new format your wafer is implementing probably is the answer I think that if
you look at the activity and the liquidity that you see on the top games
whether it’s in an individual league or on European nights then that tends to
increase liquidity so that should be very interesting as somebody says you
have any video post about trading more weather racing specifically you know I
don’t but I can’t produce one if you wish some reason my mouse keeps
scrolling down some – scrolling backwards to get the latest questions you invest some passive index funds no I
don’t I think I can perform better over the longer term than passive index fund
and I think that there are too many people classic investing in passive
index funds which is creating the value that’s that you could consider that
you’re getting from there and so you’re still thinking about launching a
financial youtube channel I am still thinking about launching a separate
channel to talk about other stuff simply because I think that they sit very
distinctly apart from each other so yeah that’s one of the things on the list so
hopefully maybe this year just having a look here somebody pointing out a new
Betfair live stream slowed up they did correct this the other day we we
complain to them along with a lot of other people and they have corrected it
some people were using bed tack that seemed to be on the old stream as well
which is interesting down says give us a little camera tour of the office I’ve
got it all lovely set up here now if I move any of this it will destroy it but
what I will do for you at some point I’ll produce a video for you showing you
what there is here there is a lot more here than most people would expect we’ve
sort of held back on showing it because we want it to be a surprise when people
come here but there is you know I don’t know if I’ve told the story about
original I traded from half a garage in my old house then we moved and I had a
nice little study and then we moved out of there and moved to an office about a
mile and a half away and then two years ago we left that office and people
started to work from Oatley and I still have to have a team here we’ve people
have been here will tell you that we’ve there’s new to see somebody working with
me if they come in here but it gave me the chance to move out the old office
because I was paying rent and I give me the landlord all of the time to buy our
own place so two years ago we actually bought somewhere completely new and I
created my own perfect little environment here so maybe I should do a
video on that let me know if you want me to do that yeah there are a lot of girls say
something’s mentioned how many drawers they were in premier leak again you know
plenty of opportunities it’s a game of two halves if you look carefully at
formations and tactics most teams will try and respond to something that
happened in the first half apart from Stanton who just kept the
same formations day and ended up losing but yeah you’ll notice this happens
quite a lot and they’re always very interested in what’s going on at half
time and what happens in the first part of the second half something saying hey
what’s the advice on trading week horse-racing markets in February just
before chant them so at this time here I just try and stay out of trouble I’ll
pick off so for example there were some great twos there was a great one best
result that I came at the grade one race today but most of the other markets I’m
just trading with small amounts and trying to stay out of trouble it’s very
easy I was talking to somebody on Friday about this if you’ve never been through
this cycle before one of the issues that you have is that it feels very weak at
this time here and suddenly you begin questioning yourself and wondering if
you’ve done things right and all of this but basically the markets are rubbish at
this time of year and no matter how hard – the first few years I experienced this
I tried to like double and treble my efforts to really make it worthwhile but
after a while I began to realize there was just almost no point so it’s just a
case of making sure I didn’t make any terrible mistakes and picking off the
old opportunity and there’s just so much opportunity over the rest of the year
that it doesn’t really matter so I tend to be a bit more relaxed start up a few
new projects and go on holiday do a couple of trips and stuff like that at
this time of year ins and just have a really chilled time this is my sort of
my slightly more relaxing time here because when it gets to the summer it’s
just crazy and especially this year because we’ve got Euro 2020 it’s gonna
be completely manic and I don’t have anything time for anything other than
trading no new projects can’t do anything can’t go anywhere it’s just all
on but I’ll earn so much money the
matter in the off period of the year I’m a bit more relaxed about that now but it
can be tough if you’ve never experienced it before or you’re you need a bit of
money to come in and it’s just not happening it’s better just to play
defensive because people tend to get into trouble at this time of year simply
because the money isn’t there in essence I will be active on the tennis next week
so I will be messing around having a look at the tennis but because of the
time difference to the Australian Open one of the issues I have with the
Australian Open as well as Beth I don’t provide live feeds for it because you
can’t bet in play or not easily in Australia one of the issues that they’ve
guys they have to pay a large licence fee to get all of the live data coming
off of the tennis matches so they just don’t bother and that is a bit of a
killer really because I rely upon bet angel looking for opportunities for me
or highlighting stuff which you can’t do automatically the Aussie Open and then
it takes place at the wrong time of the day so I will be active and looking at
it but it’s not the biggest trip tends to a lot of me it’s a chance for all of
the stuff I’m working on in the winter to throw into the market have a play
around and just see you know what happens if I can improve on what I did
last year basically you know there’s some good stuff down
I’m sorry for Camry don’t pout all of them but there are some good suggestions
on here and I am reading them and I am taking them on board and I will either
comment on the video afterwards or think about them after the things done so it’s
nice to see some suggestions on here what do you think about fire and
football I hate it it’s um I’d prefer to know I mean you
can look at it from two to two viewpoints really you do any system
within football from a fan’s perspective you don’t know whether to cheer or not
there’s a goal and I think that’s terrible because that there aren’t many
goals in football anyway so at least you could have a decent shout when one goes
in in either direction but all of a sudden you’re looking yeah it’s possibly
a goal maybe in a tunnel await and see if the ref gives it which is destroys
that that feeling that you get at the games and I hate it from that
perspective I think it is important to get decisions correct because then it’s
done and dusted and whatever but these marginal offsides I think are just
atrocious and maybe the way to deal with it is that you give each team a certain
number of challenges like you get in tennis and then the team can decide
whether to use them on all that means a better thinking through but yeah and
that the fact that markets are being voided and resettled is a bit chaotic on
some of the football matches if the market management the vial was better I
feel a bit more happy about that but a lot of time it’s a complete bloody
shambles to be honest so often a lot of people saying what is the best at sports
stars in Euboea I would recommend if you want to get used to the trading concept
you may not find it the easiest one to start with if you a newbie but if you do
racing you get the chance to practice every 10 minutes or so and therefore
it’s quite nice to be able to get into the rhythm of it because part of the
trading successfully is execution being confident with what you’re doing so I
would say greyhounds because that’s every four minutes but the liquidity is
so low it’s not a representative market but getting involved in racing gives you
the chance to be able to accurately and confidently be able to trade and get
that that bit done which you can then take to other sports and but it’s
sometimes not the easiest head around when you’re first starting
out you may want to start on things like football where you definitely know
what’s going on but I think you need to practice that trading concept and
feeling comfortable with the actual trading process and then when you’ve
mastered that that will allow you to move on so for that I’d recommend racing
simply because you’re big stakes are not at risk and you can practice it
frequently now somebody’s saying if you laid some some state would you’ve traded
out after the first wolf go generally you would often it makes sense
if the the shift is significant to trade out part of it
but that there are a couple of little tactics you can do there so for example
trade out a big chunk after the first goal when it’s a draw then you could lay
the draw and that creates a window of opportunity for you so there are many
ways of doing that but typically you need to define what you’re going to do
when you open that trade so you should know the moment you open a trade exactly
when your exit point is and how you’re going to exit and when and how much
money you’re going to use so you can’t go into and change your mind halfway
through otherwise you’ll never get consistent results and you can’t improve
so yeah make sure that you actually do have a plan when you enter a trade
rather than just making up as you go along otherwise you’ll never be
consistent clauser players asking if he wants to get back into better angel drop
a an email to support their better help you out there candlestick charts do you
find the music of trading horses not not particularly to be honest I’ll be
completely honest we put them in there because people are asking for them all
of it but I don’t really use them that often because candlesticks in financial
markets represent price activity over a period of time and in a lot of racing
markets there just isn’t the time to be able to generate a useful candlestick
indicator so I generally don’t use them thoughts
credit cards being blocked for future betting maybe to solve alcoholism they
should ban people from using credit cards to buy alcohol I think that it
makes sense to take steps to stop people who have a problem because there are
people I’ve seen some horrific stories and I’m always careful to sort of not
indicate to people that they should expect the same success as me or even
expect success at all and they need to be do it rationally but a lot of people
get into a lot of troubles so I think banning credit cards does sort of make
sense but I don’t it’s like prohibition I don’t think it will be really
enforceable just draw cash on your credit card and do that instead so I’m
not convinced that that will solve the problem you need to solve it at a much
more fundamental level to be able to overcome those issues as some was asking
here I posted a chart saying I don’t trust Irish Racing basically is slightly
tongue-in-cheek but there was some reality behind that in that I have a
value betting system that I use as well as trading it happens automatically I
create the metrics and it goes off and does all the work for me although I do
keep an eye on it and it works beautifully well and I first developed
it on flat racing started doing it on jumps but I just can’t get it to work on
our racing so that tells me that there’s something going on in the market that is
distorting the market the market seems to know something which you don’t see in
some of the other race meetings so when I say I don’t trust iris racing slightly
tongue-in-cheek but I’m sort of saying I can’t seem to get my strategy to work in
our racing so there’s something I’m missing now is that something slightly
you know related to Irish Racing or not but there is something going on there do you think bet Zach will be a
competitor to better in the future in terms of liquidity I think I mean they
have improved a lot but I think probably the way that you’re gonna get a real
competitor to bet fair is somebody coming out of the blue somebody doing
something completely different and just did you the exchange concept is so
simple when we started and it just seems to be so complicated now I think there’s
definitely a case for an exchange to just really be in exchange and have none
of the complexity that we now have but the problem you get with large
corporations especially when a part of a listed company is that they sort of
don’t change anything dramatically it’s all incrementally changed and it
deviates from where I originally started but you’ll never get radical change the
only thing that forces radical changes a crisis so I think it will be a new
entrant that changes the market significantly and builds liquidity by
going at it at a slightly different angle I don’t see anybody doing that at
the moment have you ever date rated stocks that’s
that’s a good question and I did many years ago I actually I’ve been I used to
use press tell years ago some people will not have a clue what press tellers
and press tell was scrapped and I got moved on to CompuServe and I did my
first ever trade through a trade on CompuServe it’s amazing really that’s
the first ever financial markets trade that I did and and then when it was
around 96 I became involved in a very active group of short-term traders on
financial stocks but I must admit back then I was absolutely useless at it I’ve
learnt a lot since then so I’m a lot more effective and can do that and a lot
of brought us brokers when 0% Commission last year so that’s really open it I
think she’s the biggest cost when your day trade is Commission so the u.s.
brokers going 0% meant that I did mess around on that a lot last year and
there’s a lot of strategies that I can make money at short term that rely upon
low frictional costs and that happened last year so I probably will be doing a
bit more of that this year the problem is it’s like going back to
trying again much better than I ever was now and I can’t do it quite effectively
but the position term is undefined I’ve suddenly got very used to being in and
out of the market it very clearly defines time period you go back to
financials and then suddenly there’s no defined period so that was quite
surprising but yeah I’ll probably be messing around a bit more on that
because of the changes in the u.s. in 2020 somebody’s asked me about boxing
here I must admit I don’t really trade boxing so I don’t really have an opinion
on it somebody’s asked me if I prefer scalping or swing trading your role as a
trader is to look at the market decide what would work best in that market and
then deploy it so when I first started trading the the in thing was scalping
and over time people have discovered that there’s more to the markets than
just scalping but for me it’s always been a case of when I first started
trading there were many markets that just didn’t work when you were scalping
so I then started to solve problems in those markets so I don’t have a
preference for one style or another I look at the market decide what I think
will work best in it and then deploy that strategy thank you good good-looking honky I love
your comment I’m not gonna read it out I’m gonna Google you know somebody
asking if I’ve looked at academic papers to do it better yeah they’re a few
people have written to me and asked me if I could to give them data or read
some of their papers to see if there are any glaring errors before submission so
I have seen quite a few academic papers the interesting thing is when you look
at academics they often fall it I’m not I’m not gonna cast this across every
single one but academics fall into the intelligence trap so there have been
several not everybody because because I had a guy here who’s very intelligent
last week and we had a really good interesting conversation and I thought
yeah you know this this guy really gets it but my general experience with a lot
of academia as they just don’t get it and you know I don’t have a PhD but if I
speak to somebody who does have a PhD often the default mode of operation and
again I’m not casting you know a net over everybody here but the default mode
of conversation is like you’re not worthy so because they’re better
qualified than me they feel that they’re better able to describe something but in
fact I’ve done a lot of work which I would love to take back to academia to
get published but I’m sort of thinking well I’ve done really well using this
information so I’m not ready to do that maybe when I retire or I’m 85 or I’m on
my deathbed from hate use to release it but it’s worth more to me now than it is
from getting the kudos from academia and I don’t think I would get it anyway
because I’m just don’t fit into that mold but typically what tends to happen
is people who are trying to create proofs will often be looking in the
wrong area and will often end up proofing the wrong thing you’re just
denying that’s you know something can exist so I exist I’ve been going for a
very long period of time having a really impressive track records but technically
speaking it should be impossible but um you know
is possible and there are good reasons for that but if you try and discuss
these then you sort of get batted down with the I’m more intelligent than you
and therefore you must listen to my view debate when in fact that’s not a
sensible way to go but I do know lots of very intelligent people that are very
good traders and have developed and any strategies so I’m not casting the net
over everybody here you get that whatever part of life you’re in but
there is an intelligence trap that people often fall into so I’ve seen lots
of good articles and discussions but sometimes they’re often missing an
absolutely layering point that would be critical that would elevate that paper
to another level and they’ve just missed it completely and there’s nothing I can
do to explain it somebody says for swing trading flatter
jumps the up no preference works on both I do prefer flat meetings though because
the liquidity comes thicker and faster and you get much more time in the
markets on the flat season so I tend to perform better on the flats I’ve noticed
the jump seas and the liquidity is a bit weaker and therefore they must be weaker
betting markets so yeah they tend a little bit more volatile so if I did
have to give a push I would indicate maybe look at swings
when you are in slightly weaker markets Wladimir says have you opened a thought
about opening your own exchange platform I have but the I don’t have the money or
time to do it properly I need somebody else to do it really so I’d prefer to do
a viral partnership really which I can steer and guide and where somebody else
dumps up the money to be honest but yeah it would it thought has crossed my mind
but I think the solution is to find the right partner to be honest somebody’s
asking if I hold the whale trading strategy you know I haven’t I’ll have to
Google afterwards I will have a look at that Malik and Mark Austin
Kamran Malik and Mark Austin no never never heard of that don’t know anything
about that good stuff says you have any nice stock picks for
us at the moment I think the markets a bit high at the moment I have made a few
investments over the last year some of them would have been really good some of
them not so good so I’ve always sort of tended to do alright but I’m meeting
with a hedge fund manager in about two weeks time and we have very lengthy
discussions so maybe something will come out of that don’t do a video on it
perhaps but there’s nothing on the radar at the moment that I would say what a
bargain usually it’s interesting like the way
that I trade I tend to look for things that are out of favor that perhaps
people haven’t spotted yet and I tend to desist from them so I’m looking for
situations from least likely to lose money and then every now and again one
of those you know really just turn around down says also do you make a
profit where you can stop your work so I think what you’re saying is do you ever
make enough where you stop I made enough a long time ago so it’s it’s not money
that drives me on Inlander I just enjoy doing it and finding new things so I
think that’s what you’re saying but I could stop tomorrow if I wanted to but I
don’t want to stop there’s this sense interestingly enough when you’re in a
market as well that you want to protect your edge as well so if I did stop and
then took two years off and came back somebody else would have filled that gap
and I may not find a way back in Kalem saying did you give up cricket
trading or you still going with her since the World Cup I did the World Cup
so that I could get data play around understand what the concept was and how
I was going to trade cricket and come up with a model basically so I’ve done that
but I haven’t done much since I simply because the cricket is going off at the
wrong time for me and I’ve got better opportunities elsewhere to do other
stuff but I haven’t given it up but I use the Cricket World Cup last year just
to create a model and get used to the sort of what strategies and tactics
worked and why so yeah it’s not it’s not dead but it’s not alive either now somebody asked the question here
about a world var increase the number of girls I actually thought the vial would
probably decrease them there is some research that was reading last week
which I cannot remember the conclusions off about whether far had increased or
decreased it they’ve done some really good work on it I knew somebody would so
I didn’t bother I just read somebody else’s work why not but I sort of
thought it would decrease the number of girls because more would be ruled out
and those dodgy ones where it you know that critical moments within the match
would suddenly be definitively not given but I think it may have just average
tits elf out with some of the girls that have been you know because they’re
letting the play run on a bit before deciding about far so inconclusive of
the moment I’ll have a redo this report properly and there are some conclusions
within there another question about wages the I am unusual in terms of how
much I earn so I’ve always been a bit sort of coy in terms of saying how much
I earn because I don’t want people doing this on the basis of what I earn because
I’ve got twenty years worth of experience and I consider myself to be
right at the very edge of what is possible so what I do is unusual and
that’s an extreme so I’ve never wanted to position trading as something where
you could do the same thing because you probably couldn’t but in terms of as
long as you’ve regimented I think the worst thing about trading is if you’re
worried about the money or you’re focused on the money then
it’ll probably make your worst trader I know that sounds strange but this is one
of the things that I learned about trading is if you focus on the
opportunity and the quality of the trade and you have consistent money management
and there’s no reason why you shouldn’t be able to get something out of a market
but you would have to trade lots of markets because it’s a balance of
profits and losses and when you trade in that manner so I had no idea what I was
going to learn today I just sat behind my desk and just worked each market for
what it was was worth in my head I had no doubt that I was not going to
not make any money today I knew I would make money stoves just a question of how
much but that’s a luxury that just comes from years of experience and I knew when
the feature race was and I was gonna throw as much money as that as I could
if the market would take it but I don’t have any preordained value that I’m
looking for and I think that’s the problem when you’re trying to replace an
income or you’re trying to grow your account balance it’s easy to slip into
that mode and like I said earlier on the live stream if you try and trade in
January the same as you would do in June you’re gonna get totally different
results so you’ve got to look at it from almost a seasonal perspective in terms
of what you’re likely to do but my earnings are much higher than most
people would imagine some people have struggled to believe it’s possible
anyway some people don’t believe that you can do it on any scale but I’ve been
here for a number of years doing it but that’s simply a function of I started
early got experienced very quickly and I’m very well practiced now so I don’t
think my earnings are particularly relevant to what most people were done
and the video that I did recently which was could you make a hundred thousand a
year on better watch that video because that gives you a really nice answer and
also the how to be a millionaire trader video because it’s got nothing to do
with being a millionaire but everything to do with trading and how you should
approach trading so that’s that’s the approach that you should use and it’s
more about protecting your bank not doing anything silly and trying to
squeeze a little bit of profit out of it and to start with that’s going to be
tiny you’re going to be working with small Bank and small stakes and it will
be absolutely tiny but so did I when I started I was owning pennies per event
that I was trading and then pounds and then tens and then hundreds and then
it’s just starts to build up from there but that’s the effect of compounding
really so yeah I think it’s a very personal thing and something that you
need to look at in terms of the structure in terms of the way that you
should trade but my biggest advice is don’t look at the numbers get the
trading right first and then everything will start to slot into place from there but yeah the I actually know a lot of
the numbers of the structure of the market just because I’ve been nosey and
interested in reports and stuff that come out of bets to be fair and related
entities so I have a good idea of the distribution of that so maybe I’ll
trying to think how I would best represent that at some point without
confusing people but maybe I’ll look at that at some point you’ve got people
asking here for a live stream when I’m actually trading half the problem that
you have when you’re trading is you want to be totally focused and all of your
resources focused on that and therefore I’m not sure I could probably record
stuff and post it afterwards but doing it live I think it’s just not going to
work really when I trade life when I do courses you have to try and talk through
what you’re seeing but everything happens so fast that you’re five ten
seconds behind everything that’s going on and I think that proper trading is
it’s almost done in silence you’re just going for it and working really hard
with in the market but it’s not that radically different from what you see on
the videos it’s the same thing but without the narration it’s good
Tom saying what extent is time to gay exist in tennis matches sort of doesn’t
really although the change in rules with the tiebreak in their very last sentence
that have advantage to play out the last set means that there is a finite time
which you can roughly predict so that is coming in clay more now than it would
have done in the past but in the past there was no particular
element of time 2k was the number of points left to the end of the match
there was the key factor so you won same time decay but you were because each
point takes a certain amount of time to do so yeah hopefully you understand that they did it they’re just making sure I’m
on the right path it’s the let’s look what are the chances
of the number of us customers booming and providing further liquidity on the
exchange market I would love that as you know I’ve done a few trips over to the
US and that would be the most amazing thing ever I think it would be brilliant
if that were to happen I go over there regularly for a number of reasons but
whenever I’m over there was take time out to try and promote the exchange
concept the problem you’ve got is you’ve effective got 52 states and multiple
bodies representing many different areas and that’s where it all starts to fall
down really but I’m pretty sure if an American company started in exchange
than it would gain gravitas very very quickly I don’t think any of the con
exchange has been anywhere near aggressive enough in the US and for me
exchanges are a better way of people gambling because they lose much less
money through an exchange it’s a much more equitable gambling medium but
exchanges it get crushed in other countries because they’re considered to
be a threat to the current ecosystem where is it in fact I think they solve a
lot of problems so you know I’ll keep on pushing and maybe one day we’ll get
there but it may not be in my career that it takes off but I’ll still do it
because I think that there’s still an opportunity there there’s a question here and saying I’m
not a bright person or I can’t take the risk
from trading so you may be interested know that I was that person too because
when I was younger I have recounted this on a couple of videos my parents were
strict they weren’t like strict as in like get a cane out every five seconds
but they wanted me to behave very well and the problem is that crushed my
risk-taking because you wouldn’t do stuff because you were in fear of being
punished and the way that I got over that was to just start taking more and
more risks so people who know me now or knew me
then and see me now just see me as a totally different person and I think I
learnt that taking risks isn’t really a problem it’s people the biggest mistakes
that people make in life is not taking enough risk because it’s not that things
go wrong it’s how you deal with it that matters and if you can deal with a
problem you know how ever created and whatever walk of life and that skill you
only learn by putting yourself into that situation but it’s that first step is
the hardest one but once you put yourself in that situation then you
suddenly find yourself better able to cope but to start with you gonna look a
complete idiot you’re gonna be a complete fool and it’s gonna feel
uncomfortable but the only way to overcome that is to keep doing it and
eventually you become more things fall into a more natural sense of being able
to deal with those situations and that’s what you need when you’re trading so you
know probably one of the funnest things you could do is you know go and start
cold calling people or something go to a call center because that’s probably one
of the hardest jobs where you’re going to have to cope with rejection
consistently and coping with rejection is a form of coping with a loss or a
fear of failure and that’s something that’s important when you actively trade
but some sort of fear nothing now some of the you know haven’t told hath
stories about some of the crazy things that I’ve done but I think that when you
do crazy things and you realize actually it’s not too much of a problem then it
makes it easier for you to be able to cope with taking on board more risk so
risk take or improving your ability to take risk
there’s something skids funny I’m just looking at pitch here on my laptop
that’s just popped up and it’s me stood at the top of a waterfall next to a sign
saying do not stand here that’s a good example of some of the risks that I take
now that I never would have done if he’d have wound me back 25 years ago I would
have not gone anywhere near that but it was a good selfie some saying would you
convert a millimeter yeah we should do it I keep meaning to defer ages we were
gonna do it about two years ago and then the girl was in my team got pregnant and
had a child and she was gonna arrange it all and it just never happened but maybe
we can find a way of making that happen and I’d be happy to do that he’s a good
question why you’re not trading chance’ tonight because it’s rubbish I’m not
expecting to Saturday nights generally nights off for me so end of a
long week I did some Australian racing this morning and other stuff and so for
me when the last race is done in the afternoon session on a Saturday that’s
it for me I generally I know from historical
records that I generally don’t do well on Saturday evening especially on the
all-weather and winter so I don’t bother it’s an opportunity for me to chill out
I often tend to play fifa funny enough on a Saturday evening and but you know
anything other than trading typically it’s my start of my weekend I don’t tend
to trade Sunday’s as well apart from if there’s something special going on on a
Sunday and so I tend to do the garden or something so Sunday’s I tend to have off
otherwise I could just trade 24/7 seven days a week that’s quite a complicated question here
on automation which i think is too difficult to answer in this sort of
format but maybe I can follow up some other way on that because stuff says are
you the biggest trader on Bedford it depends what market you’re talking about
because and also the type of structure there are lots of little syndicates out
there groups of people that actively work the markets together and there are
people like style is it that are obviously active on the markets or other
syndicates that I’m well aware of but on an individual basis and on certain
markets I am very big but in in aggregate and as a group of customers
there are lots of big traders around there a lot of I mean without being
disrespectful a lot of the content that you tends to see isn’t what’s the word
I’m looking for here isn’t representative of you know if you if you
look at what it takes to be a big trader this is what I’m trying to say it’s a
lot of work and you have to do a lot of markets and you have to do a lot of
things so it’s manual automated and doing multiple markets doing all sorts
of crazy things that’s what you need to do to be a big trader but I do all of
those things so necessarily by default I’m at the right edge of the bell curve
on that I do actually know but I’m I’m not sure if I would would give you all
of the detail behind that but if you want to be a big trader you’ve got to be
like any other job you’ve got to work hard and do things that other people
that aren’t prepared to do there’s a question on here saying no it’s just
it’s flips down to the bottom that’s I think it’s cuz more questions
are coming and it keeps jumping up it’s a bit online if you try to protect your
end of your profits right now how close do you think again I’d to get some I get
pretty close I should think up I have a good idea of roughly where I’ll end up I
should think Callum’s complimented me on a video that
I did so I’m happy to do more of those videos if somebody saying Thomas is
saying I are you aware of people have special deals people Bedford went
through this period of offering people a free Commission instead of premium
charge but that was no different from paying premium charge it just
effectively paid it upfront I haven’t met anybody yet that has any special
deal or any particular advantage so it doesn’t mean that there aren’t people
that found some clever ways around it there’s I should actually do a video on
how people got around the inn plate they’re like a few years ago it was a
long time ago but it wasn’t that they had an advantage it was they just did
something that was quite clever and people were sort of saying well there’s
something wrong here and it took a while to figure out what was wrong and then
eventually Betfair closed the loophole but typically if you look at for example
in play sports and you see a prices being taken very quickly what’s tended
to happen on in play markets as people anticipate them much more than they ever
did do and then people try and anticipate the anticipate is now so very
often they’re placing positions when it doesn’t almost doesn’t seem to make
sense I went to a tennis tournament and looked at the markets to try and
understand what’s going on and the moment the ball was being hit by the
server somebody must have been placing a bet because the time elapsed between if
you work your way back from when the the point was settled to when they must have
placed the bet including the in-plane delay and I was there it must have been
at that particular point so it becomes a process of anticipating the anticipators
and as a consequence I think that that can look sometimes like there’s
something funny going on when in fact there isn’t let me said how do you trade Australian
wrestling very well I did do a a blog actually on how I got introduced to
Australian racing and it was almost by accident I traded my first Melbourne Cup
I think I can’t remember when it was was it 2006 it could have been earlier than
that I have written up about this but yeah going into Australia and racing
properly it happened almost by accident but I have been trading Australian race
in for quite a few years now I portrayed it in a similar manner to the UK I don’t
do anything dramatically different but the liquidity is lower so you how to
adjust further if somebody’s saying I would love to go full-time will have
issues with my bank yes is the answer you will have issues with your bank so
in the video I put up the other week I was saying about how I remortgaged my
house before I went full-time so that I have plenty of money just in case but
the bank’s twice I’ve been this is on the business side but twice I’ve been
rejected an account even by the bank that I was with on the basis that the
company was involved in betting and it’s not even involved in betting us so
frustrating so he needs to prepare yourself if you are thinking of doing
this because if your only source of income is coming from a betting company
then they will frown upon that so I open a new bank account recently in the first
deposit that I did was out to bet fair and that seems to go fine so I thinking
way and I went to deposit five grand back into the bank and the bank froze my
account can you believe it thankfully they did unlock it fairly quickly
afterwards after I spoke to them but you are going to be plagued with problems guy says will ever be an automation
nominated Section three if you want once on the forum and if there’s demand we
will put it in we can certainly expand that if you wish to do so does your automated trading with
servants beat your ROI Dadar I’ve just seen that and it’s moved again I still
can’t get used to the the scroll eNOS here I heard is the reason we invented
servants is because there’s some stuff that works beautifully well with
automated betting and there’s some stuff that works well with manual and then the
servants it’s right in the middle of those so I use servants quite a lot
simply because you know say you’re trying to do something and you see an
opportunity if you use the servant to do the point of execution given certain
criteria then you will improve your ROI on your trade it’s absolutely enough to
below that will happen so I’m using the servants that way allows me to create
much better opening or closing positions because it can act on stuff much much
faster and quicker and more intelligently than I can see it so it
does dramatically improve what I do and that that’s been something that’s aided
my trading over the last few years limbs asking on Barrow rewards which
plans should he choose I think if you choose the two percent if you’re a high
rate premium charge pair it works in your favor as they calculate commission
generated at three percent so if that does work and you keep focused and not sidetrack
there always seems to be something to distract me yeah at the actually it’s
creating the office environment was what did it for me so people know not to
disturb me in my office whether it was here or any of the previous places that
I’ve traded from and I tend to trade in isolation I don’t really want any
distractions so even I get strikes down again I you know I’ve made a couple of
complete cock-ups and sometimes I’ll rewind my pitchers so look at something
specifically and then forgets to get it back to life so sometimes I make that
mistake but generally I’m reasonably good at not getting too distracted but I
understand why that may be a problem but you just have to cut everything else I
often listen to ambient or classical music because that takes my mind away
from anything else going on around there and then just focuses me on the screen
without any distractions I can’t listen to music with lyrics on because I start
singing too somebody asking if I place positions
with pinnacle or other companies like that I’ll look at them but I don’t tend
to place any bets on their somebody asking if I could do a low liquidity
markets on Ozzy markets there when we get some evening racing in Australia
that would probably be possible because they can be quite low liquidity so that
would probably be worth me doing a an example on there they’re relatively
straightforward in all honesty do you trade the u.s. racing markets generally
not I can do it but they’re so low liquidity and the start times are so
random that I generally don’t do that I did do some automation on it which ran
but never yield it much but there just isn’t the money there in all honesty for
for me to to do that Calvin was asking question earlier about the quarter past
five market it and Chum said I imagine there was an inquiry column do you watch any of the libraries or
listen to the live radio I watch every race more or less I’m interested in that
there are little things you can do sometimes a little hints you can get if
you watch the race live which are in sometimes interesting but I’m quite
interested in seeing when the race finishes and then switching to the other
side so I’ll often switch back words and thoughts between activity but I do watch
a fair amount of live races but I don’t spend too much time on it but it’s just
sort of there and you pick up a little bits of information now and again so it
does sit in the background video dedicated to bankroll management I can
certainly have a look at that for you so um bus warfare saying does that mean
you have to be fairly selfish towards others I think you mean in terms of
being not distracted and so on because when you look at trying to keep focused
and I think you do needs to be completely selfish in all honesty so
he’s asking here I why don’t you trade in running I do do a bit of in running
and I can do it it’s just that I earn enough from pre off to make that my main
focus so I’m looking at the pre off markets before they really become alive
and for that I can’t trade the end running and then switch back to pre off
because they wouldn’t have enough time to do the things that I want to do so
that eats into that time and the pre off markets are five times the size have
been running and most of the in running volume comes very late on so the
opportunity for me is much smaller so I’ve always traditionally stuck with pre
off racing where I know I can definitely do well I’m going to do some in running
stuff so I’ve had this habit of analyzing everything in great depth so
I’ve got lots of good information that I can give you if you want me to prod you
in the right direction on that dropped questions on here that I’d like
to answer but I probably need to answer independently sometimes I’ll say do you
have more than one better account if you’re a VIP customer then you can get
master and sub accounts it’s that’s been that way for as long as I can remember I
think a question here when is the best time to predict a movement after the
five minute mark with a biographer activities or joining the market or
before this happens you can actually if if you give me a market that is taking
place tomorrow I can tell you roughly how it’s going to behave I can tell you
how much money it’s going to turn over when the money will arrive and probably
what shape the market will take as the money begins to arrive so you can
actually look at a market way in advance and get a really good idea of how it’s
likely to behave now the problem is you’re looking at it from a quite a
broad perspective there you’re sort of saying well this is how the markets
roughly going to act this is the range in which is probably going to behave and
this is probably what’s going to happen to the favor but you know you’ve got
lots of properties and maybes in there so the more information you get about a
market the more accurately you can trade it and especially in racing most of the
real liquidity comes in quite late and as a consequence the amount of money
that comes through that market provides more information so you have to balance
out the level of information you’ve got with the time that you’ve got left in
which to trade it so at some point you have to jump so in my head I have a list
of things that I’m interested in and then one by one I’ll see those things
getting ticked off and then as it reaches a certain level of confidence
that’s when I jump into the market so you can’t predict stuff a long way out
but the closer you get to the off and the more money that’s in the market and
then the better you’ll be able to actually predict exactly what’s going on
with it so because I trade order flow I’m looking
how about money as arriving and what it’s doing and that’s influencing my
decision on that particular market it’s somebody that’s question here about
cycling one the best ever result got from cycling was it the Rio Olympics I
got an absolute fabulous result on that so generally speaking especially in an
in-place sport a lot of tactics can be transplanted because what you’re looking
at is uncertainty really if an employee vents you’re looking for the most
uncertain event that you can get because that’s got the widest traded range the
most volatility as long as you can limit losses then you can expose yourself to a
good potential profit in any sport so some of the sports the Olympics itself
it’s they hate gambling so the markets are very weak well they tend to be very
weak some of them are a little bit more liquid than others
but I would expect that if I transplanted what I did it’s the Rio
Olympics into cycling markets you would be able to replicate it there the thing
to bear in mind is the the key most important factor with trading is you
must have large amounts of liquidity because if you put a position in the
market you need to get rid of it as quickly as possible and you can only do
that if the liquidity is there so that’s your key factor a random greatness what
a great name that is what is a good strategy for soccer when you cannot
trade in play trades team news I’ve produced a video this week on team news
talking about some stuff that happened recently I wasn’t happy with the way
that it came out so I’m going to re-edit it next week but when that’s produced
that that would be the best strategy so that’ll be up there and there are videos
on it on the channel already but it’s probably better to look at the most
recent one for the best quality information what would be the best piece
of advice in gyfer and running trading courses is basically every course runs
completely differently but and you know the straight mullet asker will be
completely different from a chepstow or a Bev
but also in running you’ve got three distinct states within the market that
exist during the race itself can’t explain that in five seconds but
hopefully I’ll do a video on it which will explain distinctly what those areas
are so you have to be present in one of those areas if you’re not present in one
of those areas then you have to you know that’s going to be a mistake so that’s
something you need to be careful of somebody’s just trying to spam the live
chat so all of your messages have gone straight off the top here I’m saying can you do more Saturday
evening streams I probably should do in the winter because I got this nice
little gap between when I sort of officially finish and when my evening
starts and when I get onto FIFA and there is a little gap there so maybe
that is something I can do a little bit more and perhaps theme it around
something as well so maybe I should do some more of those yeah it’s a there’s a
really good question here actually because Ambrose says do you have any
plans to sell your business well a few years ago now it would be four years ago
we did actually explore that because I bet angel was created because I needed a
tool to be able to trade from but obviously it’s grown since then into
something a little bit different and it’s used by a lot more people but we
did explore a possible sale about four years ago but the interesting thing was
because of the way the business is structured and the fact that we don’t
really take a like a normal wage or anything from it the advice that they’re
given to us is that it was worthless almost because who you know if anybody
ever bought it they would have to have everybody within the team on board
already and because it wasn’t structured like a normal company there would be no
point in going down that route anyway so you know it wasn’t that we didn’t
explore it with serious intent but we did go through that process just out of
curiosity but I set up the company in such a way around that time that it
would continue with or without me basically so we have no intention of
selling it in the near future and we are reliant upon it in order to be able to
continue to develop and invest in the software and other things as well so
there are no plans at this moment in time I think the only thing that would
cause that would be if I fell ill or something then obviously the business
would probably have to change so that’s probably the biggest threat is me
getting old or picking up a major illness or or in a
disease or injury or something and maybe that would change things but no plans at
this moment in time have you ever thought of increasing the
amount of soccer trading you do during 2020 I will do an awful a lot so I do
focus it one of the problems that I have is it’s only worth me putting a lot of
energy and effort into something if a lot of turnover other than that it sort
of limits the ability of what I can do so I have to be careful about picking
and choosing events that I trade so I tend to pick higher liquidity wants what
should I do if I get hit with the high rate premium charge getting contact for
this but preferably do it before you’re anywhere near it or you think you’re
moving towards it because we can help you identify what you can change in
order to avoid it so if you get in contact early enough and you’re below
the threshold then there are things you can do the reason I can’t avoid it is
because I was way way over the threshold when it was introduced so it was
effectively retrospective for me and there was nothing I could do there’s no
way I can ever generate enough commission to get back to the levels
where I wouldn’t have to pay but if you’re below it and you’re heading
towards it then get in contact and we will help you can you add a comments
section to the rule editor that’s a good idea actually and I think probably we
should do it stick if you have a suggestion for the software stick it on
the forum because if we get loads of people liking it and commenting saying
yeah this is a great idea then it goes on to the development board and we can’t
guarantee when we’ll do it but we generally do get around to doing all of
them we just have to line them up in the correct order to be able to do mark says why did spec faire remove the
multiples from the exchange and worried they push the sports of excitement well
I actually suggested to them that they they’d removed the multiples because
they’re the multiples were always not an exchange product they were a secondary
product they were that the risk was taken by Betfair themselves so I always
felt that it should never be on there in the first place what they should do is
have the multiples on there as an exchange product because I would happily
go in and lay decent odds on multiples chocsaway says is talking about
potential in the Mac I have done some videos on this so you search the channel
for that maybe it’s time to update that so you can see what I do because I’m
actually have a MacBook right here and I tend to use a MacBook if I’m traveling
and so you can put that angel on it there are a number of ways of doing that
but not natively until a blood acts now that’s a name in half isn’t it
what’s the best horse racing TV service with a shortest delay at the moment or
certainly on today’s evidence when I was looking racing UK racing TV it’s cool
because they cover Irish racing but ain’t that the bet fair live stream used
to be pretty good as well but that degraded recently but they’ve switched
it back vegan dog says I hate to be a negative but we haven’t had the midway
point of winter I know I was being optimistic this will probably be the last question
because going on for an hour and a half and I know that my team will be waiting
downstairs for me but we will do another livestream we’ve had plenty questions
and I think probably we should do maybe maybe I can squeeze one in again next
weekend we’ll see we’ll see what the reactions to this one but some did
trading discipline or come easily to you not initially and when I first tried
trading was on short term on financials and it was a complete mess it was
hopeless I made all of the mistakes that I advocate people not making now and you
know you would try and chase positions leave losses for too long
get your setup wrong your money management was bad you would completely
lose it at certain points so my psychology was wrong and I recently came
up with this sort of model of what was wrong I’ve been teaching some people
recently where I’ve been trying to use their content for videos and you’ll see
one of those I put one up for you tonight if you like and I was interested
in I know how to trade I know the way the markets work I know the way that
people think and one of the hardest things was actually getting people to
think correctly or adjust their behavior so I came up with this matrix which
basically gets all of the key elements and then identifies where people are
going wrong so I’m trying to put that into a form that looks nice and neat and
allows people to identify what their issues are but I’d say probably the
number one issue that most people have as most people can learn money
management most people can learn to trade but it’s coping with losses and
the stress of trading that often throws people out and and I think it’s
difficult to overcome that without just exposing yourself to it constantly it’s
a gradual process one of the tricks that I used that I would recommend that
sort of settled on as a wave of getting yourself in the right place is to draw a
checklist of all the things you should be doing produced something wrong add it
to the checklist and you’ll end up with a big checklist and it will feel really
unnatural and you’ll be slow and you won’t do things correctly and by the
time you’ve checked the list the opportunity’s gone and stuff like that
but gradually you get faster and faster and and slowly it becomes intuitive and
you begin to be able to take risk and trade much more effectively so this was
the method that I found that tended to work with people was you know they would
feel like they were getting no way for a long period of time but slowly and
surely it begins to sink in and they would change their behavior so it’s it’s
a big ship to steer its heading in one direction you’ve got to just gently turn
it around there’s no sort of shortcut in terms of getting people to think the
right way and to trade more effectively other any recommended books to help with
psychology there are I should probably do a video on recommended books because
our very strong views on what a good books and what a bad books i’ve trawled
hundreds of books over many years and there’s some books that i know when i’ve
got a good book it’s a shame haven’t got my phone with me because I could show
you on the camera but if I tend to listen to audiobooks now simply because
I can do that while I’m doing other things and I know a good book because
I’m constantly making notes so the books I would recommend are the ones that I’m
constantly making notes on because then I take those notes put them into a more
concise format and then reread them to remind myself of all of the stuff I
learned in the book so I should probably talk to you about the books that you
should read and books they shouldn’t read and some of the books that I would
recommend because some of them are a bit out there they’re not what you would
typically expect and I think a book you get you get you do to find between books
that are made to sell and books that are informative and sometimes the
informative ones can be a bit dry but they contain a goldmine of information
so maybe I should to do a video on there what are your views on trading American
sports like NFL and NBA it liquidity is surprisingly good actually when I’m in
the US I can’t help but have a look and see what’s going on with them within
those markets so there are obviously people active and trading those markets
it would be nice we really need them to adopt the exchange over there for that
to be much better right I’m gonna have to end it there because it’s been about
an hour and a half now this video should render in the next twenty minutes or so
and I’ll stick it up on the channel but for those who have just arrived and you
know have missed most of it you will be able to see a complete replay of it but
also I wanted to thank everybody for their kind comments it’s very nice to
see the comments that are coming through on here and you know part of the reason
for doing all of this is to get you on the right track
it’s a market that is non-traditional and I think there’s some good advice out
there but also there’s a great deal of bad advice and I’m in the fortunate
position where I can actually dispense it without having any sort of impact on
myself so I’m happy to try and give that push you in the right direction and to
give you a bit of a steer on what you should or shouldn’t be doing but if you
do like the live stream then let me know and if it’s popular then maybe I should
do a few more of them although I’ll probably have to put a bit of a stricter
time limits on on the future one so that it is an impact on other stuff that I’m
attempting to do at that moment in time but some thank you very much for joining
me this evening and I look forward to seeing you again in the near future I’ve
just got to figure out how to stop the live stream now which I think it’s
probably up here somewhere but yeah thank you very much for joining me
good seeing you again in the near future

14 thoughts on “Betfair trading | Live stream with Peter Webb of Bet Angel

  1. Hi Peter. I haven`t figured out how to extract data in to a Excel sheet. Can you make a tutorial how to do that, step by step? In the forum it sounds easy, but can`t do the way it is said.

  2. Do you split your bankroll for each sport before you work out your stake sizes or do you just work out your stake amounts from the whole bankroll regardless of the sport?
    Also, do you use dynamic bankroll management where you slightly increase or decrease the stakes every time you trade depending on the previous trade or days results, or do you set targets before increasing and decreasing stake size?

  3. Superb to watch I was just going to bed and noticed it was playing. Some great questions and great answers. Please do more of these as they provide a great deal of value. Thanks

  4. I was out at the Theatre at the very moment you went live a bit inconvenient 😉 I wouldve loved to have taken part but the wife wouldnt have approved, maybe a quick trip to the toilet to ask a question!

  5. What intrigues me most Peter are the comments that you are able to look at the market for a race and have a good idea as to how it will trade in the longer term, while in past videos you have intimated that no analysis is done on horse racing form. Covering that in the future would make for compelling viewing.

  6. Does anyone else have a habit of cashing out for a substantial loss 2 minutes before something that will put you into profit? It happened to me again tonight and I think it actually feels alot worse than a simple loss on a punt. I Really really really need to learn how to trade out early and not let things run!!

  7. Great video as always Peter ! Just one question please … there was mention in the vid of a problem with the banks or something ? Do banks not like taking winnings from bookies / exchanges then ? I’d never heard of that before ? Thanks in advance !

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