UFC 205: Conor McGregor vs Eddie Alvarez Betting Preview with Jon Anik


UFC 205 looks to be one of the best if not the best card in the company’s history and with three title fights and plenty of headline worthy bouts the we brought in UFC’s Jon Anik to break down the bouts with us. Thank you for joining us Jon. My pleasure, Justin you know this as well as anybody this is the hottest ticket in UFC history so hopefully you and I can find a way into the building between now and November 12th at UFC 205. We may be sneaking in some back doors and doing some shady stuff but I’m sure we can manage. So as of this recording Conor Mcgregor coming in around a -150 favorite with Eddie Alvarez coming back at +120. Do you see those odds staying in that same range and do you think there’s good value for better to be had at the number? Yeah I think there’s value on both sides. I do think Conor is gonna close closer to -200 I think you’re going to see a couple whales load up on Conor McGregor late in the game. Some suggest maybe you’ll get some Alvarez money but to me at +120 I’m really not sure there’s a ton of value there. Now Eddie Alvarez has a lot of confidence in Mark Henry, his relatively new boxing coach was work with Frankie Edgar and others for years, and he really seems to be buoyed by Mark Henry and his presence in his corner. Certainly Eddie Alvarez work with Henry who for a long time there was a good relationship there as well but Alvarez confidence parlayed with his experience I think gives people a lot of conviction that he can come through here against Conor. But all of that said for me I think Conor is super-dangerous over those first 10 minutes. I do think he has more ways to win at least in the striking realm and I think for Eddie Alvarez he’s gonna have to wrestle, he’s gonna have to run some clock and I’m just not sure he’s gonna be able to do that but before absorbing one of Conor Mcgregor’s left hand. So at least right now at -150 I do see the value on the Conor McGregor side. Well you mention those first 10 minutes for Conor McGregor and there seems to be a general consensus that his cardio may not be up to up to snuff as Eddie Alvarez’s, so do you see this fight kind of getting past those first two rounds, more into that territory I guess that would favor Eddie Alvarez or do you think that the gap and cardio is as bad as people say? You know it’s hard to say because you can have great cardio and have a great cardiovascular training camp and then as you well know Justin on fight night the cardio can’t just abandon you. You know bright lights Madison Square Garden you get the adrenaline dump and maybe you can’t bottle your emotions as you make that walk and then all of a sudden you’re behind the eight ball so I think this is gonna be a fight that lasts less than 10 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Conor Mcgregor live up to his prediction once again and get Eddie Alvarez out of there in the first round and Eddie’s got power too and we saw what he did against Rafael dos Santos so I wouldn’t sleep on Alvarez’s power and his ability to touch Conor McGregor’s chin. But I do believe if we do hit the championship rounds based upon the fighters in their history that the pendulum will swing to Alvarez and I think he would have the upper hand in the fourth and fifth round but again not a foregone conclusion of course that we even get to that point the fight. No obviously not Mystic Matt coming back like he said predicting I think a first-round knockout of Eddie Alvarez will see if that does come true come fight night but like I said off the top this card is absolutely jam-packed with highly competitive bouts most of the odds reflect that too in there is very little big favorites. Do you think that this is the type of card that you can make a lot of money on as a bettor or this one of those ones where maybe you just sit on the sideline and enjoy the fight as a fan? You know mix martial arts is tough. We saw one of the UFC fight nights a couple weeks ago Luis Moco biggest favorite on the card certainly on the main card, a guy who many people were penciling into a potential flyweight championship fight with Demetrius Johnson he loses to the ninth youngest fighter on the roster Brandon Moreno making his UFC debut so I almost had a thesis statement after that fight that you got a bet mixed martial arts at your own peril here in 2016 and if you do I really don’t think it it makes much sense to look at favorites you know above -250. I mean if you got the bankroll and you want to put down several thousand dollars maybe I can see it but I think you need to look for value in the underdogs and I think to your point that’s why 205 is going to be pretty appetizing for a lot of bettors because there are a lot of evenly matched fights and if you do have a strong opinion on one side or the other my advice would be to get after it early I don’t think there’s anything. If you like Chris Weidman I don’t think you need to wait for November 12th. If you like Weidman and there’s a price on the board that you like don’t be afraid to pull the trick. No exactly and we’ve seen it all year long favorites underdogs have been very hot and cold they’ll go long stretches where all the favorites win then long stretches were the underdogs so to your point it’s been a difficult year for mma bettors to kind of get the ball rolling. Yeah no doubt about it and again I’m calling these fights and contractually prevented from betting on them and I think that’s probably a good thing for my wife and my children because uh if I was betting ma in 2016 I probably would not be doing very well yeah don’t ask the girlfriend how much more not after this year so thanks again John for joining us and giving us is your insight and as always you can get more of Jon Anik and Kenny Florian every week on the Anik and Florian podcast and how many places can you find that Jon? It is on iTunes, it’s on soundcloud.com, you can also find it on google play as well and really just a hard news and information show on all things UFC and you can be sure we’ll be doing a lot of 205 stuff stuff leading up to the Madison Square Garden Show on November 12th, thanks Justin. Of course and be sure to keep it locked on the Anik Florian podcast and OddsShark.com for all your betting news heading into UFC 205 in New York.

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